Market vs Mat: our odds vs reality

Before every card CardResell publishes the market-implied win odds (the sportsbook line with the vig removed, never our own prediction), then shows what actually happened. UFC 329 (McGregor vs Holloway 2, July 11 2026): the market went 1 of 4 on the fights we tracked. Max Holloway (73% implied favorite) beat Conor McGregor by first-round TKO after a knee injury (market right). But three favorites lost: Mario Bautista beat Cory Sandhagen (57% favorite) by decision, Paddy Pimblett submitted Benoit Saint-Denis (55% favorite) in round one, and Brandon Royval submitted Lone'er Kavanagh (53% favorite) in round three. Market-implied means a fair probability, the crowd's money, not advice. Same honesty as our card values: real, dated, shown even when the number was wrong.

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